In this episode, economist Bernt Nelson from the American Farm Bureau breaks down this year's AFBF Thanksgiving Dinner survey, discussing food cost trends, market dynamics, and the major factors influencing prices. Such as disease pressures, supply chain challenges, and retailer promotions. We also cover current disease challenges such as HPAI and aMPV, the importance of biosecurity, and how these pressures shape production trends and consumer demand.
In this episode, economist Bernt Nelson from the American Farm Bureau breaks down this year's AFBF Thanksgiving Dinner survey, discussing food cost trends, market dynamics, and the major factors influencing prices. Such as disease pressures, supply chain challenges, and retailer promotions. We also cover current disease challenges such as HPAI and aMPV, the importance of biosecurity, and how these pressures shape production trends and consumer demand.
Happy Thanksgiving from The Turkey Talk Show! Today we’re especially thankful for the turkey industry and the incredible people who never stop advocating for it. From NTF and state associations to industry partners and dedicated farmers, thank you for your teamwork, passion, and commitment to success!
The MPF PEAK Show room block and registration open December 3rd! The ITF Winter Convention is December 9-11th , just two weeks away! Pre-registration ends December 1st, before rates go up! NTF Annual Convention registration is now open!
Our guest for this episode is Bernt Nelson, Economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. Bernt grew up on a family farm in North Dakota where his family raised corn, wheat, soybeans, and operated a cow-calf herd. He holds both his bachelor’s and master’s degrees from North Dakota State University.
Bernt walks us through this year’s American Farm Bureau Thanksgiving Dinner Survey, which measures the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal—now in its 40th year. This year the average meal cost was $55.18, or $5.52 per person, down 5% from last year. While 2022 reached a record high of $64.05, this year’s decrease is largely due to turkey prices dropping more than 16% from 2023. However, prices for vegetables and sweet potatoes increased due to natural disasters, including catastrophic hurricane damage in North Carolina, which grows more than half of the nation’s sweet potatoes. Fresh produce remains a volatile market where small supply chain disruptions create big ripple effects.
We also discuss why turkey remains an excellent value during the holidays. Many grocery retailers use turkey as a promotional item, often selling it below cost to draw customers into the store. With sides and additional items driving overall profitability, this strategy results in very competitive turkey pricing for consumers. We encourages shoppers to take advantage of this window. Buy an extra turkey, freeze it, and enjoy a healthy, affordable protein while supporting the industry.
Disease challenges in the poultry sector remain significant. Since 2022, nearly 185 million poultry have been affected by HPAI, with turkeys representing about 10% of cases. Recently, nearly 8 million birds have been infected since September alone. USDA reports a very high virus load across all four U.S. wild bird flyways. Because of this, strong biosecurity measures are more essential than ever. USDA now offers voluntary biosecurity audits for both wildlife-exposed areas and domestic flocks to help producers strengthen on-farm protections.
Another focus is aMPV, first detected in the U.S. in January 2024. The USDA Center for Veterinary Biologics has since authorized the importation of several vaccines to help manage the situation. While not a silver bullet, these vaccines have significantly improved aMPV control efforts.
Tools like the Farm Bureau’s Market Intel reports at fb.org/marketintel, provide valuable snapshots of food costs, agricultural trends, and the economic pressures farmers experience while producing our food.
Looking ahead to the ITF Winter Convention, Bernt will share deeper insights into livestock markets, long-term trends, and the many factors influencing turkey production. He’ll discuss the challenges driving this shift, including disease pressures, input costs, and overall market dynamics, as well as what these changes mean for the future of turkey production and food prices.
We close with a broader conversation about how challenges across all commodity sectors ripple into each other. From disease outbreaks to market fluctuations, these issues shape consumer demand and influence how alternative proteins compete within the marketplace. Understanding these dynamics is crucial as the turkey industry navigates an increasingly complex agricultural landscape.
Read more about AFBF Thanksgiving Dinner 2025 Survey Here: Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines | News Release | American Farm Bureau Federation
Call to Actions
Happy Thanksgiving from The Turkey Talk Show!